人们的生活水平在20世纪飞速提高，经济学家预计在未来的几十年里，人们的生活水平还会进一步提高。这是否意味着我们人类的日子有望越过越幸福呢？
南加州大学一位经济学家理查德.A.伊斯特林在其新书《增长的胜利：从历史的视角展望21世纪》中这样告诫世人：未必如此。他承认，一般来说，富人比穷人更有可能称自己是幸福的。然而，美国人对幸福感的自我评价并未伴随着美国经济稳步发展而有所提高。伊斯特林指出：“过去近半个世纪中，美国的实际人均国内生产总值翻了一翻多，而人们并未感到比从前更幸福。”
对于这种自相矛盾的现象也许可作如下解释，随着时间的推移，人们对一定的收入会越来越不满。用伊斯特林的话来说：“收入增加了，人们的期望值也随之提高了，期望值的提高会抵消收入提高所带来的预期有所增加的幸福感。”
伊斯特林似乎在说，金钱可以买来幸福，但这只有在自己金钱不断增多，而别人收入不变的情况才会如此。他的分析有助于人们理解社会学家李.雷恩沃特的调查结果----从1950年到1986年，在美国持收入“必须维持基本生活”观念的人随着实际人均收入的增加而同比增长。如果收入比邻居多，我们就会感到自己富有；反之，则觉得自己贫穷。可见，人们的幸福感来自于相对富裕。
伊斯特林的调查结果向心理理学家亚伯拉罕.马斯洛的“需要等级体系”理论提出了挑战，该理论为人类未来的动机提供了可靠指南。马斯洛认为：一旦人们的基本物质需求得到满足后，就会转而追求更高层次的精神需求。但伊斯特林的论证却指出人类的物欲是无休止的。
伊斯特林还评述到：“尽管人类历史上从未实现过普遍水平的富裕，但今日最富有的那些国家对物质的关注还是那么迫切，对物质需要的追求还是那样的强烈。”这表明人类并未朝更高层次的精神目标进展。更确切地说，经济发展每上一个台阶只会刺激新的经济需求，进而促进经济持续向前发展。经济学家通常用国民收入的货币价值减去平均物价上涨额度来计算“实际”收入。同样，人们日益增长的物质欲望，在此主要是持续不断对经济富裕的主观要求，削减了实际收入。虽然设想一个没有物欲压力的世界是件惬意的事，但一个基于事实的更为现实的情况是，在这样一个世界里，世世代代的人们都认为只要将收入再提高10%----20%，就可达到无比幸福的境界。
需求是有极限的，而贪欲不然。科学再进步也尚未研制出治疗嫉妒的良药，因此只有当我们的财富让邻居相形见绌的时候，我们才会感到片刻的幸福。
所以在伊斯特林看来，未来的前景不容乐观：“当今经济发展的趋势告诉我们，未来经济会不断发展、永不停歇，未来世界会是一个财富不断增长而欲望节节上升的世界；一个为达到富裕不断角逐而导致文化差异尽失的世界；一个建立在信仰科学和智力并相信人类最终会有能力改变自己命运的世界。具有讽刺意味的是，在最后一点上，历史的经验教训似乎告诉我们事物的发展并非如此：人类别无选择，并不能掌握自己的命运。最后，经济发展的结果不是人性战胜物欲，而是物欲战胜人性。”
Choice
It was New Year’s Night. An aged man was standing at a window. He raised his mournful eyes towards the deep blue sky， where the stars were floating like white lilies on the surface of a clear calm lake. Then he cast them on the earth， where few more hopeless people than himself now moved towards their certain goal——the tomb. He had already passed sixty of the stages leading to it， and he had brought from his journey nothing but errors and remorse. Now his health was poor， his mind vacant， his heart sorrowful， and his old age short of comforts.
The days of his youth appeared like dreams before him， and he recalled the serious moment when his father placed him at the entrance of the two roads——one leading to a peaceful， sunny place， covered with flowers， fruits and resounding with soft， sweet songs； the other leading to a deep， dark cave， which was endless， where poison flowed instead of water and where devils and poisonous snakes hissed and crawled.
He looked towards the sky and cried painfully， “O youth， return！ O my father， place me once more at the entrance to life， and I‘ll choose the better way！” But both his father and the days of his youth had passed away.
He was the lights flowing away in the darkness. These were the days of his wasted life； he saw a star fall from the sky and disappeared， and this was the symbol of himself. His remorse， which was like a sharp arrow， struck deeply into his heart. Then he remembered his friends in his childhood， who entered on life together with him. But they had made their way to success and were now honoured and happy on this New Year’s night.
The clock in the high church tower struck and the sound made him remember his parents‘ early love for him. They had taught him and prayed to God for his good. But he chose the wrong way. With shame and grief he dared no longer look towards that heaven where his father live. His darkened eyes were full of tears， and with a despairing effort， he burst out a cry： “Come back， my early days！ Come back！”
And his youth did return， for all this was only a dream which he had on New Year’s Night. He was still young though his faults were real； he had not yet entered the deep， dark cave， and he was still free to walk on the road which leads to the peaceful and sunny land.
Those who still linger on the entrance of life， hesitating to choose the bright road， remember that when years are passed and your feet stumble on the dark mountains， you will cry bitterly， but in vain： “O youth， return！ Oh give me back my early days！”
